My research spans labour and applied economics. Major topics include firm dynamism and productivity, skills mismatch and gender inequality. Policy briefs and reports are on the Policy page.
Publications
Mind the (Gender Pay) Gap: The role of Board Gender Composition
with Amanda Gosling
Journal of Population Economics, 39, 16, 2026
Abstract Final version Code Teaser AI-generated podcast Details
We study how the share of female directors affects company-reported gender pay gaps using linked administrative data. We combine gender pay gap reports with proprietary board-composition data for 8,411 UK firms with at least 250 employees (2017–2021). Our identification uses a Bartik (1991)-style instrumental variable design that exploits regional shifts in female board representation. A one-percentage-point increase in the female director share reduces the gender pay gap by 0.043 percentage points. Moving from the current UK average to board gender parity would close about one-sixth of the reported 9.7% pay gap. The effect operates through three channels. Female directors generate asymmetric wage increases favouring women, improve female representation across pay quartiles, and ensure more equitable allocation of performance-related pay. Effects are concentrated in firms with 250-5,000 employees and are strongest when UK nationals comprise a board majority.
The varying impact of COVID-19 in the Spanish Labor Market
with Guillermo Cabanillas-Jiménez
Empirica, 51, 1075–1104, 2024
Abstract Final version Working paper Details
The unexpected arrival of covid-19 in 2020 stressed the vulnerabilities of the Spanish labor market. In this paper, we analyze the immediate impact of the pandemic on labor market outcomes in Spain. We find that, during the national lockdown period, individuals worked 3 h less per week. Moreover, we associate the pandemic with a 5.7 percentage point’s reduction in labor force participation. Finally, we do not find heterogenous effects across sectors.
Product Market Concentration and Productivity: Evidence from the UK
with Anthony Savagar, Oluwaseun Aguda and Jingwei Wu
Fiscal Studies, 45(4), 459–482, 2024
TL;DR Abstract Final version Manuscript Methodological appendix Dashboard Details
Product market concentration in the UK is increasing. Higher concentration is associated with lower productivity for the average firm, but higher productivity for the average worker because workers become increasingly concentrated in the most productive firms.
We measure product market concentration and business dynamism in the UK from 1997 to 2020 and study the relationship with productivity. Our results show that concentration in the UK is increasing among narrow industries on average, but for a broad market definition, concentration and business dynamism are stable. We find a negative relationship between concentration and productivity for the average firm, but a positive relationship for the average worker. This occurs because higher industry concentration is associated with better allocative efficiency, measured by the proportion of workers in higher productivity firms.
Working papers
Tracking the economy through firm creation: Evidence from real-time administrative data Submitted
with Anthony Savagar · 2025
ESCoE Discussion Paper 2025-18
We introduce a novel real-time dataset, Companies House Real-Time (CHRT), that captures daily firm creation and dissolution activity for the full population of UK-registered companies. CHRT tracks official business demography statistics but is available months earlier, providing timely disaggregated indicators. We demonstrate that firm entry is a leading indicator of GDP and employment. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR), we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in firm entry raises GDP by 0.1–0.2% over the following year and generates persistent gains in employment and productivity. These results highlight the value of real-time administrative data for macroeconomic monitoring, and underscore the importance of business formation as a margin of adjustment during economic fluctuations. Our findings suggest that firm entry data should be integrated into early-warning systems and policy frameworks, particularly in times of crisis or structural change.
Real-time firm creation data for the UK is a leading indicator of employment, output and productivity.
The Impact of Lockdown Easing and “Eat Out to Help Out” on Company Registrations R&R · Review of Industrial Organization
with Anthony Savagar · 2025
TL;DR Abstract Manuscript Code TPI podcast Details
The UK’s “Eat Out to Help Out” policy subsidised restaurant visitors during the COVID-19 pandemic. It led to an increase in firm creation in areas with participating restaurants across all sectors.
We investigate the effect of the UK’s “Eat Out to Help Out” policy on firm creation. The policy subsidised people to eat out at participating restaurants for a period over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the policy caused a 5.6% increase in business registrations in areas with participating restaurants. The increase is largest in high-street service activities such as ‘hairdressing and other beauty treatment’. We interpret this as evidence of a demand stimulus in one sector, leading to anticipated demand increases in geographically-close sectors, and consequently a supply increase as measured by firm creation.
‘Are you in the right job?’: Human Capital Mismatch in the UK
Single-authored · 2022
Abstract Latest version Slides Simulation app Teaser Thread Details
This paper examines a problem of worker misallocation into jobs. A theoretical model, allowing for heterogeneous workers and firms, shows that job search frictions generate mismatch between employees and employers. In the empirical analysis, the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) and British Cohort Study 1970 (BCS70) data are used to measure the incidence of mismatch, how it changes over time and whether it can be explained by unobserved ability. Results show that (i) the incidence of mismatch increases after the Great Recession; (ii) individual transitions to/from matching take place due to workers’ occupational mobility and over-time skills development; (iii) employees can find better jobs or their mobility occurs earlier than the aggregate change of skills; (iv) controlling for individual heterogeneity, measured by cognitive and non-cognitive skill test scores throughout childhood, does not decrease the incidence of mismatch. This suggests that unobserved productivity does not generate mismatch in the labour market.
Female Human Capital Mismatch: An extension for the British Public Sector
Single-authored · 2020
Abstract Latest version Teaser Thread Award Details
This paper looks at the extent of labour market mismatch of public-sector female employees. It contributes to earlier findings for the British labour market by taking into account the endogenous self-selection into jobs. Estimates are based on data from the British Household Panel Study and ‘Understanding Society’ covering the years 1991-2016. The analysis verifies that the public sector offers a few low-skilled jobs and employs, mostly, high-educated (female) workers. Regarding the market flows, findings show the greater mobility of the female workforce, which moves proportionately between sectors. Greater in-/out-flows to/from the private sector are observed regardless of the gender of the employee. Once comparing women to the median employee, a sizeable incidence of mismatch arises due to negative selection. Specifications using the selection model for the public sector illustrate a systematically higher magnitude of mismatch. Pooled results seem to dominate when women are seen in the male labour market or in a restricted subsample. Finally, the map of occupations in mismatch supports that the public sector is more attractive as a waiting room for highly-qualified graduates. They queue less time until they find a good job. Hence, policy implications regarding the allocation of jobs for women may arise.
Work in progress
Linking UK firm-level data: Methodology, Assessment and Application
with Rebecca Riley
TL;DR
We link the Inter-departmental Business Register (IDBR), as maintained by the Office for National Statistics, to the Financial Analysis Made Easy (FAME) database by Bureau van Dijk since 1999. In the second part of the paper, we offer an application of the data we match: we compare different measures of productivity for UK firms.
Did furlough lead to new business creation?
with Ellen Greaves, Anthony Savagar and Helen Simpson
Draft coming soon
Code
UK postcodes converter: country, county and rural/urban identifier
2022 · doi: 10.5281/zenodo.6221145
A tool that assigns country, rural/urban identifier and longitude/latitude information to full postcodes (e.g. CT2 7NZ) in the UK.
Converting UK postcodes to NUTS regions
2022 · doi: 10.5281/zenodo.5851100
The code converts postcode units (e.g. TS25 5ND) to postcode areas (e.g. TS). It then assigns postcodes to Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) codes of the United Kingdom (UK).