Real-Time Firm Entry and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from UK Administrative Data

Business Dynamics
Companies House

Galanakis, Y. and Savagar, A., “Real-Time Firm Entry and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from UK Administrative Data”

Authors
Affiliations

King’s College London

University of Kent

Published

November 2023

Modified

September 2025

Abstract

We introduce a novel real-time dataset—Companies House Real-Time (CHRT)—that captures daily firm creation and dissolution activity for the full population of UK-registered companies. CHRT tracks official business demography statistics but is available months earlier, providing timely disaggregated indicators. We demonstrate that firm entry is a leading indicator of GDP and employment. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR), we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in firm entry raises GDP by 0.1–0.2% over the following year and generates persistent gains in employment and productivity. These results highlight the value of real-time administrative data for macroeconomic monitoring, and underscore the importance of business formation as a margin of adjustment during economic fluctuations. Our findings suggest that firm entry data should be integrated into early-warning systems and policy frameworks, particularly in times of crisis or structural change.

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